OPEC said the global economy may perform better than expected in the second half of the year, despite trade conflicts, and refineries’ crude intake would remain elevated to meet the uptick in summer travel, which would help support the demand outlook.
In a monthly report released on Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged for 2025 and 2026, following reductions in April, stating that the economic outlook remains robust.
“India, China, and Brazil are outperforming expectations so far, while the United States and the Eurozone are experiencing a continued rebound from last year,” OPEC said in the report.
“With this, the second-half 2025 economic growth may turn out better than currently expected.”
A solid economy shrugging off trade conflicts would make it easier for OPEC+, which groups OPEC, Russia, and other allies, to proceed with its plan to pump more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts aimed at supporting the market.
OPEC+ agreed on July 5 to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, further accelerating output increases at its first meeting since oil prices jumped, then retreated, following Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran.
The International Energy Agency last week trimmed its demand forecasts. Still, it noted that the market may be tighter than it appears, as refineries ramp up processing to meet summer travel demand.
Brent crude was steady after OPEC published the report, trading close to $69 a barrel.
